Results for Blind Speed Dating Contest

[DMcWild]

Hi Gang,

I did some thinking ( I do that once in a while) about the number of agents and the strategy they may use come Monday. This will be in two parts: the first part is reviewing the rules. The second part called 'SHOTS FIRED' looks at how those arrows may be deployed.

RULES REVIEW

Agents will receive a total of 10 arrows. But not all at once.

They start with 4 arrows on Monday. Then they will receive 2 more arrows each day after that. So, 2 on Tuesday, 2 on Wednesday, and 2 on Thursday. Totaling 10.

Each partial request is worth 1 of their arrows. (Each entry can only have 2 partial requests!) And fulls are worth 3 arrows. (Using a full steals any partials made on that entry and trumps their own partial, too)

Fulls cannot be made until the last day, which is Thursday! And partials go up in cost on Wednesday to 2 arrows.



SHOTS FIRED

This is how I think it will play out.


12 agents with four arrows each on Monday gives us a possibility of 48 partial requests. I think most of these arrows will be used.

On Tuesday they will receive another 2 arrows which could lead to another 24 partials making it 72. Each entry is allowed only 2 partials, so after day two we could see anywhere from all seventy posts having at least one partial to 36 having two requests and anything in-between.

But if agents are smart they will hoard the 2 arrows they receive on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday giving them a quiver of 6 arrows so they will be able to make 2 full requests which cost 3 arrows each on Thursday.

So in the end we would have a minimum of 24 of the 48 partials requested trumped on Thursday and a maximin of all 48 partials trumped if 24 posts had 2 partials each.

Now this scenario can be shot right out the window if agents decide they want to be able to request three fulls on Thursday and that would take nine arrows leaving us going crazy seeing only 12 partial requests.

So I warmed up my Adam computer (don't trust  Microsoft software to do the math) to calculate all the possibilities and here are the results.


There will be . . . I'm still waiting for results . . . still waiting, but don't worry I'm sure Adam will be finished and I'll be able to post next Friday . . . Saturday at the lastest.

And to all my follow QTers out there make sure you don't forget not to duck.

Goodluck to us all. 

 
Don

[AnyaHarker]

Why do you think I bought that six pack of beer and the pomegranate martini mix yesterday at the store?

I'm off tomorrow, but seeing a friend of mine in the afternoon and a show in the evening. Will have to explain why I'm obsessively checking my email tomorrow. ARGH.

I will take up the position as the QT bartender. Please show your ID to the bouncer at the door, step right up and tell me what you'd like. We have beer, hard cider, vodka, rum, whiskey, gin, and baileys here. (We're law students. Shush.) What'll you have?

 

[allegretta12]

Thanks, that was very helpful!
(and I'll take whiskey, please)

[WhiteGardenia]

Thanks, Don, for your calculations.  I remember driving myself crazy the other day in the car trying to calculate the odds. 

It's too bad there can only be 2 partial requests per entry-- If someone has a super query and first 250, they are going to lose out on potential agent requests...  AND if they get a full request on Thursday, that is only one agent getting an exclusive... 

...of course it's good for the rest of us who wouldn't ordinarily get requests because agents may have to settle for their 2nd or 3rd choices.

I wonder what would happen if an agent used all 10 arrows on partials and got trumped by full requests on all 10 on Thursday.  Does that mean that agent would not be able to participate? 

It will be interesting to see how this plays out.  I was not involved in the January contest because I don't write YA. 

Oh, btw, I also asked Cupid to post a simple list of entry numbers with book title and genre.  Hope that makes it easier for us all to keep track.   

GOOD LUCK TO EVERYONE!
 

[DMcWild]

Hi WhiteGardenia,

I wonder what would happen if an agent used all 10 arrows on partials and got trumped by full requests on all 10 on Thursday.  Does that mean that agent would not be able to participate? 
 

The agent who made the full gets it exclusively for 1 week. Then the agents who used partials get it, too.

[lexcade]

Anya, whiskey on tbe rocks please. Later I might have to take you up on a pomegranite martini.

A few entries have already gotten partial requests. I'm already panicking that Duality's not gonna get a date. Also questioning why I agreed to this and how I'll make it thru the week without imploding.

This is gonna be tough.

*curls into ball*

[WhiteGardenia]

Looks like writing YA is where it's at.   

 

[AnyaHarker]

Anya, whiskey on tbe rocks please. Later I might have to take you up on a pomegranite martini.

A few entries have already gotten partial requests. I'm already panicking that Duality's not gonna get a date. Also questioning why I agreed to this and how I'll make it thru the week without imploding.

This is gonna be tough.

*curls into ball*

I'm in EXACTLY the same place. And the fact that both of us are on the front page is going to be all the more embarrassing too if neither of us get a date! Argh. I'm honestly hitting a place where I've been through several contests and a round of queries that, with this group of agents? I have a feeling if I have no requests this one will get shelved for a couple years. 

*passes out the liquor*

[lexcade]

I'm in EXACTLY the same place. And the fact that both of us are on the front page is going to be all the more embarrassing too if neither of us get a date! Argh. I'm honestly hitting a place where I've been through several contests and a round of queries that, with this group of agents? I have a feeling if I have no requests this one will get shelved for a couple years. 

*passes out the liquor*

I did a contests on MSFV's blog where Weronika was the secret agent, and she completely obliterated my first 500 or whatever it was. I cried and pouted and then rewrote the beginning another...er...5 times?

I keep thinking she'll see it and be all "Ugh. Again?"

And then of course, as you said, we're on the front page. Too many "what if's" for me.

You better make mine a double.

  Cheers

[nikkidj]

I'm right there with you, Anya.  I think if I don't get any requests, I HAVE to shelve Code.  I don't want to give up, but what do you do?

Can someone pass me a cosmopolitan?  Thanks.  And I'll take the beer nuts, too.  Muchas gracias.

[AnyaHarker]

I did a contests on MSFV's blog where Weronika was the secret agent, and she completely obliterated my first 500 or whatever it was. I cried and pouted and then rewrote the beginning another...er...5 times?

I keep thinking she'll see it and be all "Ugh. Again?"

And then of course, as you said, we're on the front page. Too many "what if's" for me.

You better make mine a double.

  Cheers

Ugh. I'm sorry on that one. Here's hoping she'll LOVE what you did with the beginning!!

I'm right there with you, Anya.  I think if I don't get any requests, I HAVE to shelve Code.  I don't want to give up, but what do you do?

Can someone pass me a cosmopolitan?  Thanks.  And I'll take the beer nuts, too.  Muchas gracias.

I know. I'd hate to have to shelve anything and I know i haven't sent out enough queries to really say I need to shelve CF? But at the same time, I can't get the fantasy agents to bite. I've had this novel in various forms for the past 10ish years now. I don't want to give up, but I'm afraid I'll be forced to be.

I got the liquor and we ain't running out any time soon!

[DMcWild]

  Congrats to QTer Clutzattack post number 52 titled NOTE TO SELF she has an arrow sticking out of her . . .  well it hit her anyway. 

[lexcade]

YAY CLUTZ!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[allegretta12]

  Congrats!!!! 

[Kimmy]

So we should be checking these, right? COrrect me if I'm wrong:
26 Allegreta
51 White Gardenia
69 Anya Harker
62 Kimmy
52 Clutzattack
70 Lexcade
37 Nikki
19 JennaDanielle
49 DmcWild

At this point only Clutz has a partial! Its 525pm eastern time. Will keep checking!