Odds of publishing

[LittleNell]

I've read different statistics regarding the odds of selling a book that's repped by an agent: some say 50% or 60% chance.  Where do the numbers come from?  Do you think they're accurate?  Does it hinge on the agent?

[bodwen]

I've read different statistics regarding the odds of selling a book that's repped by an agent: some say 50% or 60% chance.  Where do the numbers come from?

Dunno.

Do you think they're accurate? 

No.

Does it hinge on the agent?

Absolutely.  Bear in mind that anyone can call himself an agent.  Most of the seasoned agents only take on projects they are reasonably sure they can sell or edit into a salable form.  This agent might get a call from an editor to go to lunch to chat about potential sales.  Other agents with less experience or fewer industry contacts will not have the same results.

But all of that is going right out the window with the kindle revolution and the poor state of the economy.

[Nostrabuttus]

A lot depends on the agent.  A few years back, in a conversation with Daniel Lazar, he told me about a third actually ended up getting published. That was for debut authors of fiction. He told me the numbers were different for non-fiction. He is a highly respected and successful agent. In an effort to keep those statistics from taking a nosedive, he elected not to represent me. 

A lot has changed in the industry since I spoke with him.

Personally, I think there has never been a better time to be a writer. Success stories are just a matter of time, for all those who don't give up on their dream.

[stephcamp]

Focusing on statistics does no good. How do you determine who ends up in that supposed 50-60%, you know? Obviously SOMEONE has to. Why not you? Don't give up.

[Duff]

Great way of looking at it, Stephcamp!

Statistics are funny that way. Think of it in terms of querying or getting representation. Some agents request 20% of material, some 1%. You never know which will want your manuscript, because it's so subjective and there are limitless variables at play.