Dear Jonny,
I have read similar stats to yours.
I have heard from several publishers, literary journal publications, and agents remark that they have been receiving a significantly greater number of queries this year than in past years, ostensibly because of the pandemic and associated constraints on movement and travel. I don't have any specific numbers from them, but from the tone, it feels like they may be receiving 50% to double more than in the past. But that is just my guess. So the supply of written works and querying agents is much higher and hence more competitive.
Of course, one might expect more people are reading as well during the pandemic. But as there is a significant lagtime, I assume we as authors querying now are unlucky whereas authors with books that came out over the last year are lucky in terms of timing.
I would be curious to see how others react to this very pertinent question.
Sincerely,
Richard